Like most Americans who watched the debate between Trump and Biden last night, I quickly concluded that Joe Biden is unlikely to be the Democratic Party candidate on November 6, 2024. The problem is not Joe Biden’s age, but his mental capacity to hold the office.
There are a few problems with replacing Joe Biden as the Democratic Party candidate, however. Biden has already won enough state primary delegates—3,894 out of 3,937–to guarantee capturing the party nomination at the convention in just 52 days. Assuming that President Biden does not voluntarily withdraw (which seems unlikely as I write this), he is guaranteed the party’s nomination.
Note. Actually, as of this date, Biden will officially win his party’s nomination before the convention. Because Ohio state law specified that a party’s nominee must be selected at least 90 days before the election to qualify to appear on the ballot, the Democratic National Committee has agreed to hold a virtual roll call early in order to officially nominate its candidate before that deadline. Of course, since the DNC announced the virtual roll call, the Ohio legislature has passed a law that relaxes the deadline, so it is possible that the DNC will decide not to hold the virtual roll call. If the roll call is canceled, that would be a solid indication that the party is seeking to replace Biden as the front runner.
It is also important to remember that if President Biden decides not to seek the nomination this year, Vice-President Kamala Harris does not automatically become the party’s nominee. Harris has no pledged delegates and those currently pledged to Biden are under no obligation to support the nomination of Kamala Harris.
If President Biden were to announce that he is not seeking the nomination, this would result in an open convention in which all of Biden’s delegates would be released from their obligation to vote for him and they would be free to pick a new candidate. This scenario has happened twice in recent history. In 1960, both John F. Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson sought the nomination and they eventually reached an uneasy compromise in which, although the two men clearly did not like each other, Kennedy topped the ticket and LBJ agreed to run as his vice-president.
The other example is from 1968, after President Lyndon Johnson surprised the nation in March, just five months before the convention, by announcing he would not seek his party’s nomination. The president’s late withdrawal had a profound impact on the 1968 presidential race and the dynamics within the Democratic Party leading up to the convention. This convention was notable for its contentious atmosphere that saw protests and clashes both inside and outside the convention hall. The disastrous convention in Chicago was a significant factor in Democratic candidate Hubert Humphrey’s losing the election.
Assuming that Biden does not voluntarily withdraw and that he successfully secures his party’s nomination, his nomination can still be ended and he can be replaced by the party with a different candidate. The rules adopted by the DNC have two provisions for officially changing the candidate. The first rule deals with death, declination, or disqualification: If the nominated candidate dies, declines the nomination, or becomes disqualified before the general election, the Democratic National Committee has the authority to fill the vacancy.
There is a historical precedent for this in the Party. Senator Thomas Eagleton was selected as the running mate for Senator George McGovern in the Democratic Party's presidential ticket, in 1972. After it was revealed that Eagleton had undergone electroshock therapy twice for depression at least six years before. Since the diagnosis and treatment were considered liabilities at the time and were believed to make him potentially unfit for office (as well as potentially jeopardizing McGovern’s chances of winning), Eagleton “withdrew” from the ticket on August 1, 1972, and was replaced by Sargent Shriver on August 8, 1972, just before the Democratic Convention.
After Eagleton’s medical history became news but before he withdrew, Senator McGovern on several occasions stated on several occasions that he was “behind Eagleton 1000%”—an infamous phrase that in later decades would be called a meme for imminent abandonment. While McGovern still probably would have lost to Nixon, the Eagleton incident underscored broader concerns about McGovern's campaign readiness and decision-making process, which Nixon's campaign capitalized on to reinforce doubts about McGovern's candidacy.
The other rule the Democratic Party could use to remove Joe Biden from the election is a little less clearly defined. “The Democratic National Committee (DNC) has the authority to fill vacancies that may occur on the national ticket due to death, resignation, or other circumstances deemed appropriate by the DNC.” In other words, if the majority of the DNC determines that a candidate is not fit to run, the committee can remove that candidate and either reconvene a convention or (and this is more likely) select a new candidate by a consensus of the committee.
Picking a new candidate this way would have enormous difficulties. First, it would certainly alienate Biden supporters and raise suspicions of the DNC acting unilaterally and eliminating voter choice. It would also face severe financial hardships because the campaign funds raised by Biden would remain under his control and could not be transferred to the new candidate. Even with Biden’s approval, under campaign finance rules, all Biden could do—if he were willing—would be to transfer the funds over to a PAC supporting the new candidate.
If Biden is to be replaced on the ticket, whether voluntarily or not, the clock is ticking. Even if the Democratic Party delays until after the second debate on September 10 to decide, it may be too late to mount a campaign for a new candidate. Early voting in some states starts in September, with at least one state accepting ballots even before the second debate is scheduled to air.
If the Democratic Party waits until September to pick a new front-runner, it will lead to court challenges over delegates or over whether the ballots can be reprinted in time to be mailed out to voters. In some states the only way to vote for the Democratic nominee might be by a write-in vote and those voters who marked ballots for Biden would likely be disqualified. By comparison, the chaos of an open convention would seem preferable.
There is one more historical example worth mentioning. In 1884, the Republicans nominated James G. Blaine as their candidate for President. Blaine was a former Speaker of the House whose reputation had been tarnished by a scandal in which the Union Pacific had purchased worthless bonds at their face value from Blaine in exchange for political favors. While Blaine vehemently denied the charges, a former aide produced letters from Blaine that not only confirmed the story, but which letters ended with the phrase: "Kindly burn this letter."
The election was very close and Blaine came within a quarter of one percent of winning the popular vote while Cleveland won solidly in the electoral college, 219-182. The Democratic Party, which had been out of political power since the Civil War, won not only the White House but control of the House of Representatives. Two years later, the Republicans also lost control of the Senate.
All of this makes me a little happy I’ve retired. I pity the history professors who will have to stand in front of rooms full of students and try to explain presidential history from 2016 to 2024. Forgive me in advance for assuming that 2028 will be a return to normality. But then, after the last eight years, who knows what “normal” is?
The Democrats don't understand us. Trump may be a bull in a China shop, but he's our bull and it's their China Shop. We kind of like the destruction he wreaks.
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