The classroom
was divided equally into two sections by an aisle running down the middle of
the room. Students have been free since
the beginning of the semester to sit where they want, and they generally spread
themselves out fairly equally, creating two fairly similar sample groups.
To one side of
the room, I gave each student a small slip of paper containing two questions:
- Do you believe that Benito Juarez was more than 114 years old when he died?
- Guesstimate the age of Benito Juarez when he died.
The other side
of the room got a slip of paper with only one question:
- Guesstimate the age of Benito Juarez when he died.
The class has
been studying Mexican history, and while we had been discussing Juarez, we had
not yet reached the period when he dies suddenly of a heart attack, nor does
the textbook mention his age when he dies.
What was point of the quiz?
Actually, the
point had very little to do with history—Mexican or otherwise. The quiz was not even graded; instead, I
asked a student on each side of the room to gather the slips on their side,
then average the answers on the estimated age of Juarez when he died.
The results were
rather shocking: among the students with
two questions to answer, both the average answer and the range of answers were
significantly higher than those of students who only had to answer a single
question. Why?
Actually, I was
repeating a famous experiment published by Daniel Kahneman in his brilliant book, Thinking Fast and Slow. Kahneman, a pioneer in the field of
behavioral economics and a winner of the Nobel Prize in economics, calls this
the anchoring effect—the tendency to allow a piece of information
to influence decision making. In the
example above, I suggested to my students the utterly preposterous notion that
President Juarez might have lived to be over 114 years old.
Or, as Kahneman
put it, “Any number that you are asked to consider as a possible solution to an
estimation problem will induce an anchoring effect.”
In his book,
Kahneman gives an example that I wasn’t quite able to duplicate in my classroom
(and sooner or later, I really did have to talk about Mexico…). A wheel of fortune was rigged so that it
would only stop on either 10 or 65. Then
the experiment participants were asked the following questions:
- Is the percentage of African nations among UN members larger or smaller than the number indicated?
- What is your best guess for the percentage of African nations in the UN?
The average
answer of those who saw 10 and 65 were 25% and 45%, respectively.
Want another
example? Visitors to the San Francisco
Exploratorium were given two questions:
- Is the height of the tallest redwood tree more or less than 1,200 feet?
- What is your best guess about the height of the tallest redwood?
In this example,
the average estimate was 844 feet. But,
when the height in the first question was lowered to 120 feet, the average
estimate of the tallest redwood decreased to 282 feet, a drop of 562 feet, a
difference of much more than 380 feet—the actual height of the tallest redwood!
This kind of
influence happens so frequently that it is amazing that it is only recently
that we have a name for it. Kahneman
gave a perfect example of this in real estate.
Trained professionals—experts in evaluating real estate—consistently
gave higher estimates of a property’s value after being told the seller was
asking an outlandishly high price for the property.
It may be almost
impossible to have a business negotiation of any kind without the anchoring
effect having some effect on the transaction.
It explains why opening bids are exaggerated, why television hucksters
establish a phony value for the schlock they are selling before revealing the
true price, and why states with ceilings on liability lawsuits never see a
reduction in insurance rates—it just pushes the amounts awarded up to the
maximum. The amount of the ceiling
becomes the anchor.
That the
anchoring effect works is obvious, but what distresses me is that even
information that we immediately recognize as false—still influences us! Remember the experiment that I did with my
students? None of them—not even the
education majors—believed for a second that President Juarez lived to be over
114 years old. The idea was
preposterous, but it still affected their answers.
In an election
year, I do find this distressing. More
than I should, I watch television, I read things on the internet, and I read
the occasional blog that is neither footnoted nor peer-reviewed. (Of course, the one you are reading right now
is okay, but all the other blogs are pure shit!
Trust me, I’m 487% reliable and somewhere in the right hand column is
the very large number of readers this month who agree with me.)
I wonder how
many of my opinions have been shifted by nonsense that I knew was false,
but it still shifted my decision making.
On the other hand, all of this does help explain this bizarre
election year—sort of.
Oh, and
President Juarez died at the age of 66...Or 114.
I'm getting jaded in my old age. I expect to be lied to by politicians and adjust my expectations accordingly. It's not often a light comes on for me. I've spent my life screwing in bulbs trying to get lights to come on. It kind of refreshing these days when one lights up. Your article made me realize what it is about Donald Trump that raises his supporters' expectations so high. Given the impossibly elevated level of B.S. in his speeches, and the impact of the anchoring effect on his hearers, it suddenly became obvious to me why his listeners have such high expectations of Trump. It is the anchoring effect of his blatantly overblown declarations of his impossible honesty, his superhuman capabilities and his white knight on his steed image that causes Trumpians to describe what they believe is being promised to them in such glowing terms. His wild promises, even if obviously over-stated anchor their expectations so far above those of other candidates, more rooted in what is true and what is possible that in their minds these lesser mortals cannot compete with the glory that is The Donald.
ReplyDeleteHitler had that ability to elevate people's expectations so high that they made themselves believe he could do the impossible. Hitler, through the application of outlandish promises allowed people to lie to themselves so much that they really were surprised when allied troops took them on tours of the death camps. The Donald is using that same playbook and that's what frightens me about him.
Someone a few days ago challenged me on the Hitler analogy. Hitler killed 6 million people (it was actually far more than that). Donald Trump hasn't killed anyone. "Well," I answered. "Neither had Hitler in 1933 when they made him chancellor.
God help us.
And thanks for the lesson in elementary propaganda. It was nice to see a light come on. It was getting dusky around here.
Tom